for over a decade now, usually in The Washington Post.
Let鈥檚 just say that no one would have become rich by betting on my past predictions.
Nevertheless, since being wrong has never stopped education pundits from continuing their pontifications, I figured it shouldn鈥檛 stop me, a practicing teacher, from continuing mine!
Here鈥檚 what my crystal ball tells me for 2024鈥攍et me know what you think, and make your own predictions, too, by responding to me on Twitter (now X) or via email at lferlazzo@epe.org.
1. Despite what and say, artificial intelligence will not revolutionize education鈥攁nd certainly not next year. However, it will help teachers craft more accessible student materials, make writing easier, and create some . It will also force us teachers to to make them more AI-proof. By the end of 2024, AI will just be another tech tool that we teachers have figured out .
2. in schools will die down as more and more schools figure out, like ours have, that the simplest way of dealing with them is by requiring phones to be in backpacks during class. At the same time, however, the public will become more aware that teen cellphone use in schools is not the primary cause of student challenges. Instead, like most factors affecting academic achievement, .
3. Layoffs of teachers and classified staff will begin as districts face the (the end of pandemic funding from the federal government). And it won鈥檛 be pretty鈥攆or those who are laid off, for those who are kept, and for our students. It will mean bigger class sizes, dirtier classrooms, and it sure won鈥檛 make the teaching profession look any more attractive to prospective teachers.
4. However, President Joe Biden will be reelected, Democrats will keep control of the Senate, and retake the House. That means that come 2025, a renewed effort at providing additional funding for education, particularly Title I schools, will be successful and reduce the negative impact of the fiscal cliff.
5. This Democratic victory, which will also be reflected in races throughout the country, will take the wind out of the sails of Donald Trump and many of his enablers and followers. Though some book bans and teaching restrictions on systemic racism and LGBTQ+ issues will endure, at least for a while, I believe that 2023 will be viewed as their 鈥渉igh鈥� mark.
6. A reaction to some of the overreach of the 鈥渟cience of reading鈥� has begun and will accelerate in 2024. More and more researchers and educators will recognize that its tenets have an important place in the classroom, but that it鈥檚 also possible to have 鈥渢oo much of a good thing.鈥� Its endorsement by Moms for Liberty will also begin to take its toll.
7. Many of us teachers will continue to search鈥攗nsuccessfully鈥攆or ways to replace Twitter/X as the invaluable place it was for professional and personal learning communities for so many years. Some of us are still hanging in there on the site, and Threads and Blue Sky are . I suspect I鈥檒l be saying the same thing a year from now.
8. Chronic absenteeism will go down substantially, and state test scores will improve as our resilient students bounce back from trauma of the pandemic. Nevertheless, there will continue to be pundits who will say we teachers are still not doing enough.
9. I borrow this last one from educator Bill Ivey every year. He predicts that 鈥渆ach and every school day will bring tens of thousands of reasons to celebrate in schools across the country.鈥�
