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Voters in Ohio sent an unequivocal message to that state鈥檚 Republican governor and lawmakers last week that they went too far in reining in collective bargaining for teachers and other public employees. But analysts say the conflict between the GOP and teachers鈥� unions in Ohio and elsewhere is not over.
By an overwhelming, 22-percentage-point margin, Ohioans鈥攅ven in heavily Republican counties鈥攔epealed Senate Bill 5, enacted earlier this year. It was a resounding defeat of a law that stripped teachers and other public employees of most collective bargaining rights, and many predicted the vote could have ripple effects in other states that have engaged in high-profile battles with unions, such as Wisconsin.
The message from unions now is: 鈥淢ess with us, cross us, and we will come after you, and you will pay the political price,鈥� said Patrick McGuinn, an associate professor of political science and education at Drew University, in Madison, N.J.
Analysts predict the power struggle will continue, however, with Republicans likely to modify their strategy, including by taking smaller bites at collective bargaining by public employees.
While 2011 is an off-year election, a smattering of state-level races and ballot measures are on tap. Among the highlights to watch for Nov. 8, along with the results of some already-decided races:
BALLOT MEASURES
Ohio
Voters will decide whether to approve or reject a new law that reduces teachers鈥� and other public employees鈥� collective bargaining power.
Louisiana
Voters on Oct. 22 approved dedicating future tobacco-settlement revenue to scholarships for students attending state colleges.
Colorado
Proposition 103 would raise sales and income taxes temporarily to support public education. The vote is Nov. 1.
STATE LEGISLATURES
Four states are holding regular legislative elections: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia. (Louisiana had a primary Oct. 22 and will have a run off Nov. 19.) A number of other states are holding special elections.
GOVERNORS鈥� RACES
Kentucky
| 
|
| Steve Beshear (D) | Donald Williams (R) |
Mississippi
| 
|
| Johnny DuPree (D) | Phil Bryant (R) |
Louisiana (decided Oct. 22)
| 
|
| WINNER | |
| Bobby Jindal (R) | Tara Hollis (D)* |
West Virginia (decided Oct. 4)
| 
|
| WINNER | |
| Earl Ray Tomblin (D) | Bill Maloney (R) |
*Gov. Jindal won an open primary that pitted Republicans and Democrats against each other. Hollis finished second.
SOURCE: National Governors Association; National Conference of State Legislatures
The Ohio referendum, known as Issue 2, was perhaps the most closely watched ballot fight of the 2011 off-year election season nationally. But voters in other states made important decisions, too, as governors in Kentucky and Mississippi were elected, and Republicans took control of Virginia鈥檚 legislative and executive branches for just the second time in more than a century. In addition, the state teachers鈥� union in Michigan prevailed in a recall of a key state legislator.
The Ohio law was pushed through the state鈥檚 GOP-controlled legislature in March with strong Republican support, including from Gov. John Kasich, who was elected in 2010. That鈥檚 the same year Republicans took control of both chambers of the legislature.
In school districts, the measure would have blocked bargaining over class sizes, school assignments, and provisions that restrict principals from assigning workloads and job responsibilities. It would have forbidden districts to give preference in layoff decisions to teachers with more seniority, a provision similar to those approved in a number of other states this year, such as Florida and Idaho. The law also would have created a merit-pay system for teachers, though it was unclear how educators鈥� performance would be judged.
After years of being virtually untouched because of their formidable political force, public employees鈥� unions this year were on the receiving end of a flood of far-reaching policy fights to restrict their power, in states including Wisconsin, Idaho, Indiana, and New Jersey.
Labor Pushback
But the unions have responded fiercely.
Randi Weingarten, the president of the 1.5 million-member American Federation of Teachers, billed the Ohio statute as an assault on the middle class鈥攁 common theme that鈥檚 been playing out in campaigns at all levels, including in the 2012 presidential race.
鈥淥hio voters made it clear to them that there is a price to pay for turning your back on the middle class,鈥� Ms. Weingarten said after the vote.
In Wisconsin, after pushing through legislation earlier this year that effectively ended collective bargaining in that state for most public employees, including teachers, Republican Gov. Scott Walker, who was elected in 2010, is now the subject of a recall effort. If a petition drive is successful鈥攁nd many predict the Ohio vote will help buoy that effort鈥攈is job could be at stake in next year鈥檚 election.
Also in last week鈥檚 elections, in Michigan, the Republican chairman of the House education committee, Paul Scott, was recalled after being targeted by the Michigan Education Association for weakening teacher tenure and cutting education funding.
But those efforts don鈥檛 mean the collective bargaining issues are going away, education and political experts say.
Elements of Ohio鈥檚 SB 5 likely will be re-envisioned and packaged differently there and even in other states, said Frederick M. Hess, the director of education policy studies for the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
鈥淎mericans have never been radicals,鈥� said Mr. Hess in an postelection seminar in Ohio sponsored by KnowledgeWorks. SB 5 was a 鈥渟mart, thoughtful, and well-considered鈥� way to empower state and local officials to solve budget problems, argued Mr. Hess, who writes an opinion blog for 澳门跑狗论坛鈥檚 website. But, he added, people don鈥檛 want to be 鈥減ushed too fast and too far.鈥�
Mr. McGuinn of Drew University agreed in part, saying that Republicans are likely to tackle smaller pieces that attack specific problems, such as rising health-care costs among public employees.
鈥淭here will probably be less of a frontal assault,鈥� Mr. McGuinn said.
What鈥檚 Next
Gov. Kasich hasn鈥檛 signaled his next steps in Ohio.
鈥淚鈥檝e heard their voices,鈥� he said in a press conference after the referendum, speaking of the voters. 鈥淎s a result of that, it requires me to take a deep breath.鈥�
For the governor, part of SB 5 was a money-saving initiative. Gov. Kasich had argued that the law would drive down costs for taxpayers by phasing out expensive concessions made to unions during the negotiating process. His administration had estimated that the law would save local governments, including school districts, more than $1 billion per year by reducing health-care costs, requiring employees to contribute more to their pensions in some cases, and doing away with automatic salary increases.
Without it, Gov. Kasich said, state officials will try to work with local governments to deal with budget crunches. But, he said, 鈥渢here鈥檚 no bailout coming, because frankly there鈥檚 no money. It鈥檚 going to be very important for local communities to continue to deal with their cost challenges.鈥�
The unions acknowledge there are legitimate issues that need to be addressed, and that state and local governments are still struggling
鈥淭here are other ways to raise revenue than to take a potshot at the unions,鈥� said Lily Eskelsen, the vice president of the 3.2-million member National Education Association, during the Ohio seminar, without getting specific. 鈥淲e have a financial crisis. What a wonderful opportunity to blame people like teachers for causing a crisis that, of course, Wall Street greed caused.鈥�
Despite the overwhelming rejection of the collective bargaining law, last week鈥檚 election in Ohio wasn鈥檛 a slam dunk for Democrats. Ohio voters, by an even bigger margin, approved a constitutional amendment requiring the state to opt out of certain parts of President Barack Obama鈥檚 health-care program, dealing a blow to Mr. Obama in a swing state as he faces a tough re-election battle.
Mixed Messages
In addition, Ohio can鈥檛 be compared with a lot of other states because of its deep history of labor activism and heavily blue-collar workforce, both of which helped defeat the collective bargaining law, Mr. McGuinn pointed out.
Two other states had more-predictable election-night finishes.
In the two governors鈥� races decided Nov. 8, Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear, who had been running far ahead in the polls all along, was re-elected in Kentucky, and Mississippi voters elected Republican Phil Bryant after fellow Republican Haley Barbour was barred from running because of term limits.
But in Virginia, Republicans鈥攚ho already control the governor鈥檚 office and the House of Delegates鈥攕eized effective control of the Senate with a 20-20 split, in which the Republican lieutenant governor would break any ties. It represents only the second time in more than a century that the GOP had so much power in that state, local media reports say.
