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In the debate over the future of the No Child Left Behind Act, policymakers, educators, and researchers seem to agree on one thing: The federal law鈥檚 accountability system should be rewritten so it rewards or sanctions schools on the basis of students鈥� academic growth.

Congress, they say, should scrap the current model, which judges schools on the number of their students who are deemed proficient. That method, its critics say, overlooks schools whose students are showing growth toward proficiency, and sometimes fails to single out high-achieving schools in which a significant proportion of students aren鈥檛 making progress.

The U.S. Department of Education recently reaffirmed the Bush administration鈥檚 commitment to so-called growth models. Earlier this month, it would approve all states鈥� growth models that meet its criteria for participating in a 2-year-old pilot project.

鈥淓verything I鈥檝e done says growth model, growth model, growth model,鈥� said David N. Figlio, a professor of economics at the University of Florida, in Gainesville, who has studied several states鈥� accountability systems. 鈥淎 growth model will encourage schools to make genuine improvements, as opposed to cosmetic improvements.鈥�

Compared with the NCLB law鈥檚 current 鈥渟tatus model鈥濃�攚hich makes accountability decisions by tracking the test scores of one year鈥檚 group of students against the previous year鈥檚鈥攇rowth models, by tracking individual students鈥� progress, can provide a more accurate picture of whether a school is succeeding in helping its students.

Pilot States

In November 2005, the U.S. Department of Education announced a pilot program for up to 10 states to use growth-based accountability models. All states are now eligible to apply for the program.

(Requires ).

SOURCE: EPE Research Center, 2007

鈥淭he growth model shows you exactly what鈥檚 happening in that school,鈥� said Robin R. Taylor, the associate secretary for assessment and accountability in the Delaware Department of Education.

But despite widespread support for the concept, the path to implementing growth models under a revised No Child Left Behind law won鈥檛 be easy, researchers and policymakers say.

Not all states have the data systems they would need to analyze test scores for evaluating schools using the proposed accountability model. Experts question whether growth models that required student gains large enough to reach the law鈥檚 goal of universal proficiency would deliver results much different from those of the current accountability system. They also disagree on how to design growth models to determine the success of schools with already-high achievement levels and thus low rates of academic growth.

鈥淚 don鈥檛 think you can do growth without recognizing status,鈥� said Margaret Goertz, a co-director of the Consortium for Policy Research in Education, based at the University of Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia. 鈥淭here鈥檚 got to be some sort of mix.鈥�

The No Child Left Behind law, which marks its sixth anniversary next month, is the first federal effort to hold all public K-12 schools accountable for the performance of their students. The law was due for reauthorization in 2007, but Congress has not advanced beyond holding hearings and discussing draft plans for revising it. The effort is slated to resume in 2008, although some observers predict Congress won鈥檛 complete its work until after the next president takes office.

A revision of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, first passed in 1965, the NCLB law requires states to test their students annually in grades 3-8 and at least once in high school in reading and mathematics. It also mandates that states determine whether schools and districts are increasing the number of students who are proficient in those subjects.

To avoid getting caught in the law鈥檚 web of sanctions, schools must be on pace to meet the goal of universal proficiency by the end of the 2013-14 school year. Schools must meet their annual goals for all students and those same goals for specified student subgroups, including members of racial and ethnic minorities, economically disadvantaged students, English-language learners, and children with disabilities.

If schools receiving federal Title I aid for disadvantaged students don鈥檛 meet their goals for two years in a row, they must offer their students the chance to transfer to other public schools. After a school falls short of its goals for five years, authorities must completely restructure it.

The law requires schools and districts to compare the test scores of each grade from one school year to the next. For example, the proficiency levels of last year鈥檚 3rd graders will be compared with this year鈥檚 to determine a school鈥檚 accountability status for the 2008-09 school year. The accountability method is commonly called a status model because it tracks the state of each grade from year to year and doesn鈥檛 measure individual students鈥� growth in achievement.

The weakness of the model is that it doesn鈥檛 reward schools that start at low levels of performance. They can show significant growth in student achievement but still be declared 鈥渋n need of improvement鈥� under the NCLB law. Conversely, schools that start with high student achievement can backslide and not be targeted for interventions, so long as the total number of students scoring as proficient doesn鈥檛 drop below the schools鈥� goals.

Unlike the current accountability system, growth models recognize schools鈥� success in improving student achievement at all performance levels, Mr. Figlio said. that the status models reward schools for focusing on students near the proficiency level and slighting those either way above or below that level. (鈥淎cceleration Under Review,鈥� Aug. 1, 2007)

鈥淭he big value of growth models is that educators focus on what their goal is: that is, to grow kids [academically],鈥� said Chrys Dougherty, the research director of the National Center on Educational Accountability, an Austin, Texas-based nonprofit group that supports data-based efforts to improve schools.

Congress had little choice but to rely on the status model when it wrote the NCLB legislation in 2001, NCLB legislation in 2001, the law鈥檚 supporters say. At the time, few states tested students every year鈥攕omething necessary for tracking student growth. And even fewer had the sophisticated databases needed to calculate accountability scores based on such growth.

Perhaps six states could have used a growth model under the bipartisan measure at the time President Bush signed it into law in January 2002, Mr. Dougherty estimates.

Today, all states test annually under the NCLB law. But have the three pieces of data that can track every student鈥檚 score from one year to the next, according to the Data Quality Campaign, a coalition of education groups led by the National Center on Educational Accountability. Those ingredients are: a unique number to identify each student, the assurance that proficiency levels are consistent across grade levels, and information about why specific students aren鈥檛 assessed.

When the Data Quality Campaign first conducted the survey in 2005, 21 states had the data they needed for growth models.

鈥淪tates are moving very quickly toward鈥� being ready to use growth models, said Brian Gong, the executive director of the National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment, a Dover, N.H.-based group that consults with states on testing and accountability policies. 鈥淚t will take many states several years to work that out.鈥�

Although policymakers, researchers, and interest groups are rallying around growth models, they don鈥檛 necessarily agree on how to design them.

The most significant question to be settled: How much growth is enough?

鈥淲hen most people think about growth models, they think about a year鈥檚 growth in a year鈥檚 time or a little more than a year鈥檚 growth in a year鈥檚 time,鈥� said Ms. Goertz, who was on a panel of researchers and advocates who reviewed applications in the Education Department鈥檚 pilot project.

While such learning growth may constitute progress, it鈥檚 not fast enough to meet the NCLB law鈥檚 goal of proficiency for all U.S. students.

In designing the pilot project, Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings required that students post achievement gains that suggest they would be proficient by the end of the 2013-14 school year.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 a very steep trajectory,鈥� said Mr. Gong. 鈥淚t鈥檚 very hard for schools to reach.鈥�

The number of schools meeting their goals hasn鈥檛 increased significantly in the nine states that are currently using growth models.

The criteria that the Education Department requires states to meet may make it difficult to dramatically expand the number of states using the growth models. And the steep increases in student achievement required under the growth models may mean that schools鈥� results may not differ from the current accountability system.

But states are anxious to try growth models to inform Congress鈥� debate over the future of the law, said one official who works closely with states.

鈥淲e have a large number of states trying to improve their approaches鈥� to accountability, said Scott R. Palmer, the director of the education practice of Washington office of the Holland & Knight law firm.

鈥淚t鈥檚 good that the department would 鈥� encourage states to move to these models,鈥� said Mr. Palmer, who advises the Council of Chief State School Officers and several states.

By changing the way states report whether schools have made adequate yearly progress, or AYP鈥攖he gauge of success under the law鈥攕tates could give a better picture of schools鈥� progress toward the law鈥檚 goals. One alternative would be to give schools letter grades based on their progress toward meeting the proficiency goal.

That would eliminate the stigma of failing to achieve AYP and give schools an incentive to improve or maintain their grades.

In his research on Florida鈥檚 accountability system, Mr. Figlio found that schools that received an F and were far from moving up a grade rarely made significant progress. Those close to improving their grades had a reachable goal and were more likely to produce student significant achievement gains, he added.

鈥淚f schools think there鈥檚 no chance, why should they work toward it?鈥� Mr. Figlio said.

Another benefit of a grading system, Mr. Gong said, is that it would recognize all schools that are making progress, not just those that are on track to meet an ambitious standard.

鈥淚t would 鈥� recognize that some growth levels would be admirable and hard to do even if they don鈥檛 get [all] students to proficiency,鈥� he said.

For all the focus on growth models, some scholars suggest that No Child Left Behind also should recognize the overall achievement of a school. Just as the status model overlooks schools with significant achievement gains, a growth model could conceivably determine that a school with 100 percent proficiency is in 鈥渘eed of improvement.鈥�

Trying to balance the grades for status and growth is often difficult, Mr. Gong of the National Center for the Improvement of Educational Assessment said. Last month, the New York City school system released grades based on a combination of schools鈥� overall achievement and growth of achievement for all its 1,466 schools. The city鈥檚 elite schools complained about getting grades of B or C, while some low-performing schools received higher grades.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 always been the case when growth and status are combined,鈥� Mr. Gong said. The best solution is to give separate grades, he added.

But the public isn鈥檛 savvy enough to see through such a nuanced system, said Mr. Figlio. In England, the education department gives each school a grade for growth and status, but people overlook the scores for growth, he said.

鈥淲hat happens is people pay attention to the status score,鈥� said Mr. Figlio, who recently lived in England while on sabbatical from the University of Florida.

Under Florida鈥檚 accountability system, schools are rated on the growth of three separate groupings of students: the total enrollment; students starting below proficiency; and those who score at the state鈥檚 lowest performance levels.

鈥淭he kids who are historically left behind are counted three times,鈥� Mr. Figlio said. 鈥淭he kids who are historically advantaged are counted once.鈥�