One of the major challenges ahead for educational technology companies centers around this question: Once schools buy the hardware and install the broadband, will the money districts and states are investing in ed tech to prepare for the common core simply fade away, or will it shift to new priorities?
Several market analysts, ed-tech company officials, and education leaders say they do not expect to see the money disappear, but they instead expect a shift in the use of that money that places an emphasis on the impact of different products.
鈥淲hat鈥檚 going to happen now is that with this proof of efficacy, you鈥檙e really going to be able to see who鈥檚 doing a better job of making kids ready,鈥� said , a managing partner at GSV Advisors, an education-sector-focused investment bank based in Chicago. 鈥淭his is a great place for us to be able to make sure we鈥檙e getting a real return on investment in the quality of the products that are purchased.鈥�
Others echo that perspective.
鈥淐ommon core is driving a much more sophisticated use of technology, and we鈥檒l see spending increases as we learn more about the impact of new instructional models and pedagogies to support the standards,鈥� said Larry Singer, a managing director for Pearson鈥檚 North American schools group.
As technology becomes more affordable and powerful, as well as less threatening to K-12 educators, market players, and observers predict the next wave of ed-tech investments will center on digitally delivered personalized instruction and professional development targeted at the common-core standards and assessments.
And as districts address data security and student-privacy concerns, fully support teachers, and shift to more plug-and-play interoperability solutions that allow applications to work with each other in easier and more useful ways, there will be 鈥渕ore and more of a reality around the personalization of learning than the rhetoric we have now,鈥� noted Steven Pines, the executive director of the , based in Vienna, Va. 鈥淭oday, there鈥檚 this mantra that we want to have 1-to-1 delivery of instruction, and it鈥檚 a wonderful and right path to be on. But it鈥檚 more aspirational than it is universally implemented.鈥�
Personalized Priorities
To push past the aspirational rhetoric, the Metropolitan Nashville Public Schools in Tennessee used a grant in 2012-13 to let 10 of its 153 schools create tech-rich model classrooms, a move that has spurred a strategic plan to have blended learning environments in every school by 2017-18.
鈥淏lended learning defines the environment, personalized learning defines the instruction,鈥� said Kecia Ray, the executive director of learning technology and library services for the 87,000-student district.
Technology will be the biggest expense for states and school districts as they prepare for, and implement, the Common Core State Standards, according to one recent analysis.
SOURCE: Pioneer Institute for Public Policy Research
Ms. Ray, who is also the chairwoman of the board of directors for the , or ISTE, a Washington-based membership association that promotes innovative uses of educational technology, reported that the district expects to receive a $1 million increase in local money this summer to support the use of new technologies in classrooms鈥攁ll because of instructional and environmental changes spurred by the Common Core State Standards. In Nevada, the 316,000-student Clark County district has started focusing investments on performance-based contracting to help individualize instruction.
鈥淲e have extremely high class sizes, and almost one-third of our students are English-language learners, so if companies say they have the tools to meet those needs, we want to build metrics that right away hold them accountable,鈥� said Jhone Ebert, the district鈥檚 chief innovation and productivity officer. 鈥淚f benchmarks aren鈥檛 met, then we鈥檒l part ways.鈥�
Some market observers, however, say it鈥檚 important to note that the common core is just one of several factors driving ed-tech spending.
Mark Schneiderman, the senior director of education policy for the Washington-based 鈥攚hose members include developers of software, digital content, and related school technologies and services鈥攕aid that while the common core 鈥渘o doubt has supported a spike in that area, it hasn鈥檛 shifted any fundamental long-term technology trends that we鈥檙e seeing in states without those standards.鈥�
鈥淥nce you start isolating technology for specific programs, you鈥檝e lost the bigger picture,鈥� added Wendy Drexler, the chief innovation officer for ISTE.
Digital PD Trends
New technological requirements in place to meet the demands of the common-core assessments give districts greater opportunities and flexibility in how they use technology. And Ms. Drexler believes more attention will shift to pedagogy and investments in the growing potential of students to create their own learning environments.
鈥淭here are 3D printers and the maker movement, and the whole concept of hands-on and collaborative problem-solving,鈥� she said. 鈥淭hink about the implications for education. Instead of buying tools teachers can use, why not have kids make the tools they need to learn? That鈥檚 some proactive stuff.鈥�
There are unprecedented opportunities for companies with products aligned to the spirit of the common-core standards, said Bert Bower, the founder and CEO of , a K-12 publishing company based in Mountain View, Calif. 鈥淭his is where you鈥檙e going to see innovative companies come out and rule the educational world,鈥� he said. 鈥淭he hardware is the easy, just-scratching-the-surface stuff.鈥�
For its professional-development services, TCI has gone from providing in-person training 100 percent of the time five years ago to 10 percent of the time today. Instead, the company embeds professional development in 20 different ways in every piece of content. A teacher using an HTML5 slideshow about waves has access to embedded note fields that include answers to questions that pop up on the screen, for example, or information about common student misconceptions.
鈥淲e鈥檝e tried to get districts to use their money for traditional PD, and they鈥檙e not interested, and yet they鈥檙e on fire for these products that have embedded PD,鈥� Mr. Bower said. 鈥淓veryone wants everything 24/7 now.鈥�
SIIA reported a steady year-over-year increase in online professional-development spending over the past few years. Digital and online professional development was up more than an estimated 11 percent in 2011-12 from the 2010-11 school year, totaling more than half a billion dollars, Mr. Schneiderman said.
Framing the Future
Despite predictions for what school districts will be spending money on in the future, Kathleen Brantley, the senior director of MDR鈥檚 EdNET Insight, said people should not lose sight of the fact that a mere 23 percent of districts nationwide in 2012-13 had substantially implemented 1-to-1 computing initiatives, according to an annual survey of technology directors by the education-related information-and consulting-services source, based in Shelton, Conn. Many districts have far to go on the technology front and aren鈥檛 yet able to focus heavily on the digital content that would come next, Ms. Brantley said. 鈥淭hey have a strong desire for that goal of a 1-to-1 environment, and they鈥檙e nowhere close to that now,鈥� she said.
Once districts do reach that goal, they still have mastered 鈥渙nly the first piece of the puzzle,鈥� said Keith Krueger, the CEO of the Washington-based Consortium for School Networking, a professional association for school district technology leaders. 鈥淚n fact, if this is all we do, we haven鈥檛 advanced the real potential of technology in education.鈥�
That said, there鈥檚 only so much predicting about the potential of technology in education given the speed of technological breakthroughs that wind up as classroom fixtures.
As Clark County鈥檚 Ms. Ebert framed it: 鈥淲e鈥檙e going to be getting into things we don鈥檛 even know are being invented right now.鈥�
