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Plans by the Bush administration to set a uniform way for states to calculate and report their graduation rates could make it harder for high schools to avoid accountability measures under the No Child Left Behind Act.
In the U.S. Department of Education鈥檚 latest move to refine the implementation of the NCLB law, Secretary of Education Margaret Spellings she would propose rules that would 鈥渆nsure that all states use the same formula to calculate how many students graduate from high school on time.鈥�
鈥淚n addition, we will make this data public so that people nationwide can compare how students of every race, background, and income level are performing,鈥� Ms. Spellings said in a speech here that left many questions about the forthcoming policy unanswered.
Federal action is needed, she said, because states often publish graduation-rate data that fail to accurately count all students who drop out of school.
鈥淚t鈥檚 the start of something good, and it鈥檚 long overdue,鈥� said Gary M. Huggins, the director of the Aspen Institute鈥檚 Commission on No Child Left Behind, said in response to the announcement. 鈥淎t least we鈥檙e beginning to get the truth out there.鈥�
But the secretary didn鈥檛 explain which formula she would propose for states to use, nor did she say whether high schools and school districts would be held accountable for their graduation rates for every subgroup of students.
Ms. Spellings also didn鈥檛 say whether the Education Department would require states to set ambitious targets for improving graduation rates. Under plans previously approved by the department, most states鈥� rules allow high schools and school districts to escape the NCLB law鈥檚 accountability measures even though they make little or no progress in improving graduation rates, said Bethany Little, the vice president for policy at the Alliance for Excellent Education, a Washington advocacy group for high school improvement.
A uniform graduation-rate formula 鈥渋s so desperately needed,鈥� Ms. Little said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 not enough.鈥�
The department plans to put forth a formal proposal by the end of April, Ms. Spellings said.
Graduation Momentum
Secretary Spellings announced her intentions at an event where the it would sponsor 鈥渟ummit鈥� meetings in 50 states and 50 big cities to address their dropout problems. The Washington- based group, which was founded by former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and is led by his wife, Alma J. Powell, is the latest of several efforts aimed at increasing the number of students who graduate from high school.
Researchers estimate that 70 percent of students graduate four years after starting high school. Slightly more than half of African- Americans and Hispanics graduate on time, the research suggests.
Secretary Spellings鈥� proposal follows an earlier national initiative to improve the quality of data on dropouts and graduates. Three years ago, all of the nation鈥檚 governors agreed to use the same formula to calculate and report graduation rates, under an agreement sponsored by the National Governors Association. (鈥淓fforts Seek Better Data on Graduates,鈥� July 27, 2005).
Many states are still building the data systems they need to track individual students to determine whether they have dropped out or transferred to other schools. States continue to publish graduation data using a variety of methods that the federal Education Department has approved in their plans to comply with the 6-year-old No Child Left Behind law.
鈥淚t鈥檚 good news, but there鈥檚 a bit of concern about it being a national mandate,鈥� Christopher Cashman, a spokesman for the NGA鈥檚 Center for Best Practices, said of Ms. Spellings鈥� announcement. 鈥淭his is something governors have done voluntarily.鈥�
The NGA is working to ensure that governors who have taken office since 2005 agree to the agreement鈥檚 terms, Mr. Cashman said.
In a brief interview after her April 1 speech, Ms. Spellings declined to specify whether the rules she plans to propose would require states to use the same formula that the governors endorsed.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think people will be surprised by the approach that we take,鈥� the secretary said, saying that the White House Office of Management and Budget is reviewing her proposal. After the proposed rules are published in the Federal Register later this month, Ms. Spellings expects that they will become final by the beginning of the 2008-09 school year.
The secretary didn鈥檛 clarify whether the proposed rules would require high schools to meet graduation- rate goals for every student population that must make adequate yearly progress, or AYP, under the No Child Left Behind law. Now, schools must break out test-score data by racial and ethnic group, family income level, and categories such as students with disabilities and English-language learners.
Schools and districts must meet achievement targets in each subgroup based on a trajectory that would bring all students to proficiency in reading and mathematics by the end of the 2013-14 school year. Students are tested in grades 3-8 and once in high school.
High schools also must meet graduation-rate goals to make AYP, but they don鈥檛 have to meet goals in every subgroup of students.
Ms. Spellings鈥� graduation-rate proposal is her latest effort to use executive authority to modify the administration of the NCLB law, which is considered one of the Bush administration鈥檚 most significant domestic initiatives.
In December, Ms. Spellings said she would approve all qualifying states鈥� plans to determine schools鈥� and districts鈥� accountability status based on the growth in students鈥� test scores. Last month, she as many as 10 states鈥� plans to , depending on how far the schools are from meeting their AYP goals. (鈥溾�楪rowth鈥� Pilot Now Open to All States,鈥� Dec 12, 2007).
鈥楶iecemeal Changes鈥�
To accomplish those changes, the secretary is relying on a provision of the NCLB statute that gives her broad power to waive sections of the law to improve its implementation, said Samara Yudof, Ms. Spellings鈥� press secretary.
One congressional leader said he agreed that the federal government should establish a single method for calculating a graduation rate. But he added that the NCLB law needs more thorough revisions than the Bush administration can accomplish through regulatory actions.
鈥淚t is unfortunate that the Bush administration rejected an opportunity last year to work with Congress in a bipartisan way on comprehensive reforms to the No Child Left Behind law,鈥� Rep. George Miller, D-Calif., the chairman of the House Education and Labor Committee, , 鈥渁nd has instead chosen to make piecemeal changes to a law that educators and parents know is in need of significant improvement.鈥�
The law is up for reauthorization in Congress, but Rep. Miller has said it would be difficult for lawmakers to complete the process before President Bush leaves office next January.
The administrative changes are 鈥渒ind of a shadow reauthorization through consensus-driven fiat,鈥� said Kevin Carey, a senior policy analyst for Education Sector, a Washington think tank.
The approach also appears to be a strategic decision by the administration to resist dramatic changes to the NCLB law that the Democratic-controlled Congress might make, Mr. Carey added.
鈥淭hey鈥檇 rather stick with what they鈥檝e got than deal with some wholesale retrenchment,鈥� he said.
Although the Education Department is providing waivers for NCLB mandates that may exceed what the law allows, Mr. Carey said, he believes it has chosen to address problems that most policy experts agree need to be addressed.
