No matter what state you live in, the future of education policy鈥攁t least for the next few years鈥攚ill be heavily influenced by the votes cast in the November elections.
Those votes will decide who will be governor in 36 states, and who will hold 84 percent of the legislative seats in statehouses across the country. Voters in seven states will choose chief education officers, and in at least 10 states they鈥檒l elect members of state boards of education.
Even with the heightened federal role under the No Child Left Behind Act, state lawmakers, governors, and state superintendents still are central in deciding how much money schools get, how to get well-qualified teachers into the classroom, and what students must do to graduate. And it鈥檚 at the state level where policies aimed at educational improvement鈥攚hether high-stakes testing, universal preschool, or new forms of school choice鈥攁re most often conceived, advanced, and duplicated.
The 2006 elections also offer Democrats their best opportunity in more than a decade to seize power in many states. Republicans have a fairly narrow, 28-to-22 edge in governorships. And the GOP鈥檚 control of statehouses is razor-thin: Twenty legislatures are controlled by Republicans; 19 by Democrats. Power in the remaining statehouses is split, except for Nebraska鈥檚 legislature, which is nonpartisan.
Republicans control both chambers in 20 statehouses, while Democrats have control in 19 states. Eighty-four percent of all state legislative seats will be up for grabs this fall.
*Click image to see full chart.
SOURCE: Stateline.org
鈥淪tates are where the action is in public policy. The legislatures control a half-trillion dollars in public money,鈥� said Tim Storey, an election expert at the Denver-based National Conference of State Legislatures. 鈥淭hese elections are vital.鈥�
At the level of state schools chief, South Carolina has one of the most intense races, where Republican Karen Floyd survived a five-way primary and now battles Democrat Jim Rex in a campaign that鈥檚 focused largely on school vouchers. In Idaho, a former education advisor in the Bush administration, Republican Tom Luna, faces Democrat Jana Jones for a post he tried for and lost in 2002. And perhaps the most interesting state board of education races will be in Kansas, where the controversial issue of teaching evolutionary theory has trumped most other education issues.
A Democratic takeover of more governors鈥� offices and statehouses likely would mean less talk of vouchers and merit pay for teachers, and more calls for additional funding for public schools, especially from the federal government to help finance the requirements of the No Child Left Behind Act.
鈥楻ancid鈥� Mood
Polls suggest that the electorate is an angry, dissatisfied bunch that鈥檚 ready for a change.
鈥淎mericans are more unhappy than they have been in the last 30 years,鈥� said the Washington-based pollster Peter D. Hart, speaking at the annual meeting of the NCSL in Nashville, Tenn. Mr. Hart鈥檚 firm does polling for NBC News and The Wall Street Journal, and for mostly Democratic candidates and campaign committees.
He said his research has shown that voters are increasingly distrustful of American institutions, from sports to public schools. 鈥淭here鈥檚 a sense that institutions are letting us down,鈥� Mr. Hart said. 鈥淭he mood is rancid. It is a sense of change.鈥�
And that鈥檚 why Republicans are worried. In 1994, they were on the winning end of a similar uneasiness, when a GOP surge led to Republican victories in many states. Then, a dozen governors鈥� seats flipped to Republican control. Twenty percent of statehouse seats turned over, mostly in Republicans鈥� favor, as the GOP picked up more than 500 legislative seats. The party also gained control of both houses of Congress.
Thirty-six states will hold elections for governor. Republicans hold a 28 to 22 edge in governorships.
*Click image to see the full chart.
SOURCE: National Governors Association
鈥淭here is a much higher emphasis on legislative races now, and it鈥檚 going to be a challenging year for Republicans,鈥� said Alex Johnson, the executive director of the Washington-based Republican State Leadership Committee, which seeks to get Republicans elected to state legislatures. 鈥淎 lot of these issues that are working against Republicans鈥攍ike the war in Iraq鈥攁re not in our control. It鈥檚 important for legislators to focus on local issues.鈥�
And education is sure to be one of those local issues. 鈥淭hat continues to be in the top two or three issues for us,鈥� said Michael B. Davies, the executive director of the Washington-based Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the counterpart of the GOP group.
鈥淓specially now that states have resolved their budget issues,鈥� he said, referring to states鈥� recent fiscal rebound, 鈥淚 think we鈥檙e going to see more emphasis on education funding.鈥�
Across the country, 6,181 legislative seats are up for grabs鈥攁nd some will be more pivotal than others. The NCSL has identified 10 battleground states, where power in one or both chambers could flip. Democrats have opportunities to take control of the Indiana House, the Minnesota House, the Oregon House, and the Tennessee Senate, the NCSL says. They could seize the House and the Senate in Iowa.
Republicans鈥� best chances are in the Oklahoma Senate, the North Carolina House, and both chambers in Colorado and Maine. Either party could win in Montana, where the House is evenly split between the GOP and Democrats.
Only four states won鈥檛 have legislative races: Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
Gubernatorial Races
State legislatures don鈥檛 work in a vacuum, and the success and failure of education ideas will also hinge on who is governor.
In those races, Democrats need to defend the 14 governors鈥� seats that are up and which they now control, and win four more to claim a majority of the 50 governorships. Republicans have 22 governors鈥� offices to protect.
The National Education Association is closely watching 10 governors鈥� races, including those in Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa, Florida, and Ohio, because they have the potential to switch parties, said National Education Association President Reg Weaver.
And if there鈥檚 any doubt of the impact a governor can have on education, consider outgoing Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who led the charge to implement vouchers and high-stakes testing with penalties and rewards for schools.
In Minnesota, a governor who鈥檚 worked to reform teacher pay structures and high schools is in a tough re-election battle.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a Republican, successfully secured money for districts that adopt incentive pay for teachers, making his state a front-runner on teacher-compensation issues. His state is also working on redesigning high schools with the aim of making them more effective.
But Gov. Pawlenty鈥檚 teacher-pay plan, which encourages schools to structure salaries based on teacher performance, wasn鈥檛 popular with teachers鈥� unions, who traditionally argue for across-the-board pay raises. He鈥檚 also been criticized for shortchanging public schools by balancing the state鈥檚 budget without raising taxes. Mr. Pawlenty, who was elected in 2002, and is the incoming chairman of the National Governors Association, is in a competitive race with Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch.
鈥淚鈥檓 an agitator of change,鈥� Gov. Pawlenty said in an interview last month. 鈥淪o of course I have my opponents.鈥� He鈥檚 countered criticism with a plan to reward high school students finishing in the top quarter of their classes with full-tuition scholarships for at least two years to a Minnesota public university.
His opponent, Mr. Hatch, pledges to lower class sizes and invest more money in education.
鈥淎ll of the candidates are trying to capture the independent-minded swing voter, and the issue for drawing those voters in is education, particularly putting more money into education,鈥� said Lawrence R. Jacobs, the director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota鈥檚 Hubert H. Humphrey Institute.
And Minnesota is like many other states, Mr. Jacobs said, when it comes to how important education is to the elections: 鈥淚t鈥檚 an education arms race here.鈥�
