White teachers are generally less optimistic about their black students鈥� chances of obtaining a four-year degree than black teachers, a new study finds. And those lowered expectations could become 鈥渟elf-fulfilling prophecies鈥� when students internalize them or when teachers change their approach to students as a result, researchers suggest in an
鈥淥ur analysis supports the conventional wisdom that teacher expectations matter,鈥� write Seth Gerhenson, a public policy professor at American University, and Nicholas Papageorge, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University. 鈥淐ollege completion rates are systematically higher for students whose teachers had higher expectations for them. More troublingly, we also find that white teachers, who comprise the vast majority of American educators, than they do for similarly situated white students.鈥�
The authors suggest schools should address teacher expectations, work to eliminate racial bias among staff, and seek to hire a more diverse teaching force.
Measuring Bias in Teacher Expectations
Gerhenson and Papageorge drew their conclusions after analyzing data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, a nationally representative set of 6,000 students from the cohort of teenagers who were in 10th grade in 2002, and collected by a division of the U.S. Department of Education. That dataset includes information from student surveys, teacher surveys, standardized tests, and administrative data from schools. Among the data points鈥攕urvey responses from students鈥� math and reading teachers asking whether they expect each student to finish high school, complete some college, or earn a degree.
Surveyed teachers expected 58 percent of white high school students to finish at least a four-year degree. They expected 37 percent of black high school students to do the same.
When evaluating the same black student, white teachers were nine percentage points less likely than black teachers to expect that that student would earn a college degree.
Correlation vs. Causation
The researchers also found that students were more likely to complete a degree if their teachers predicted they would.
But correlation is not equal to causation. Were teachers unfairly biased against their students? The researchers said that teachers鈥� perceptions could be based on an awareness of systemic problems those students faced that might make degree attainment more difficult鈥攑roblems like poverty and unequal educational resources.
So they analyzed the data in several different ways to look for evidence that teachers鈥� expectations were too low and evidence that those lower expectations affected students鈥� degree attainment. In one analysis, they analyzed one teacher鈥檚 perception of the student, controlling for the other teacher鈥檚 perception of the same student and other factors, like students鈥� backgrounds and past grades.
鈥淭he second teacher鈥檚 expectation is a valuable control in this setting, as it explicitly accounts for many of the unobserved factors that affect both the first teacher鈥檚 expectation and the student鈥檚 educational attainment,鈥� the researchers write.
Another analysis incorporated other data points, including teacher optimism (measured by determining if their expectations for their students are, on average, higher than other teachers鈥�), teacher survey responses about individual students鈥� attentiveness in class, and student survey responses about whether they enjoy the class.
Their conclusion is that all teachers 鈥渁re overly optimistic about whether their students will complete college, but that white teachers are less optimistic about black students than are black teachers.鈥�
鈥淎ll teachers are optimistic, but white students receive more optimism than their black classmates,鈥� the article says. 鈥淭his means that even though white teachers鈥� lower expectations for black students are in a sense more accurate, this accuracy is selectively applied in a way that puts black students at a disadvantage. Since positive expectations increase students鈥� likelihood of going to college, the greater optimism heaped upon white students magnifies black-white gaps in college completion.鈥�
Why High Expectations Matter for Students of Color
Gerhenson and Papageorge鈥檚 analysis builds on previous research that shows, among other things, that adults and that teachers have differing expectations for students of color.
Why do these expectations matter? How do they affect student outcomes?
鈥淪tudents might perceive and emotionally react to low or high teacher expectations, which could benefit or damage the quality of their work,鈥� the researchers write."Or, they might actively modify their own expectations and, in turn, their behavior to conform to what they believe teachers expect of them. Alternatively, teachers with expectations for certain types of students may modify how they teach, evaluate, and advise them, and in the case of low expectations, could perhaps shift their attention, time, and effort to other students.
鈥淓ach of these possibilities creates feedback loops that trigger self-fulfilling prophecies: intentionally or not, teacher expectations cause student outcomes to converge on what were initially incorrect expectations.鈥�
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