While principals may be unhappy about tight budgets and other cost-cutting measures, dissatisfaction with those things may not necessarily make them think about leaving.
But shortages of teachers and substitutes鈥攁 big challenge for schools and districts this year鈥� may drive them to quit, according to a published this month.
The paper, by Julia H. Kaufman and Melissa K. Diliberti at the RAND Corporation and Laura S. Hamilton at the Educational Testing Service, is based on survey data from a panel of principals collected in the spring of 2020, when nearly every school in the country halted in-person instruction, and the fall of 2020, when most districts returned to in-person schooling but juggled multiple instructional modes as local COVID-19 infection rates rose and fell.
The paper injects some nuance into the conversation about a looming school leadership exodus. It鈥檚 also an opportunity for district leaders to assess working conditions for principals and to provide resources, such as mental health and other supports, to address the stress and dissatisfaction school leaders are voicing, Kaufman said.
Half of the principals surveyed in fall 2020 said they 鈥渁greed鈥� or 鈥渟trongly agreed鈥� that they weren鈥檛 as enthusiastic about the job as they were when they first started, and 43 percent said they鈥檇 quit for one that paid more, according to the paper. Another 27 percent said the 鈥渟tress and disappointment鈥� weren鈥檛 worth it. The numbers from Kaufman鈥檚 panel exceeded those from a federal survey from the 2015-16 school year. And about 21 percent of principals in Kaufman鈥檚 research said they planned to quit when the 2020-21 school year ended.
Will the mounting discontent lead principals to quit over time?
鈥淭hat鈥檚 the $1 million question,鈥� Kaufman said, noting the connection between people being dissatisfied with their jobs and actually leaving.
鈥淚f you were more dissatisfied at your job, you probably wouldn鈥檛 be doing your job as well. As their dissatisfaction is mounting, [principals] probably aren鈥檛 as able to do their jobs as well.鈥�
Intention versus reality
Various polls have tapped into the sentiment that pandemic conditions and political and social divisions over the last two years may push principals out of the profession. Thirty-eight percent of principals who responded to a National Association of Secondary School Principals survey released in December 2021 said they planned to leave the job over the next three years.
But there are indications that the K-12 education sector has not experienced an employee exodus, even as schools struggle to find workers. National data are a few years off.
Data from two states, which were analyzed by Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University, show that, at least in 2020-21, the first full year of the pandemic, principal turnover was lower than the last pre-pandemic school year and the national principal turnover average.
In Massachusetts, principal turnover actually fell to 12.8 percent in 2020-21 from 19 percent in 2018-19.
In Colorado, principal turnover increased to 15.8 percent in the 2020-21 school year after falling in 2019-20. It was still below the turnover rate for the 2018-19 school year.
Chad Aldeman, the policy director at Edunomics Lab, who analyzed the state data on principal turnover and has also researched teacher attrition during the pandemic, said the same thing could be true for both principals and teachers: they鈥檙e stressed but not necessarily leaving their jobs in historic numbers.
Aldeman also noted that current data do not capture whether turnover is increasing this year. Still, he said, rising dissatisfaction 鈥渋s not good news.鈥�
鈥淚t might be a problem we need to address for the mental health of the professionals; but it may not necessarily lead to the same rate of turnover as what the surveys are picking up,鈥� he said.
Scarcity leads to dissatisfaction
The researchers thought principals鈥� needs would decrease as schools moved back to in-person teaching in fall 2020. Instead, they found that principals鈥� self-reported needs grew across the board as they were asked about things like high-quality materials and teacher training.
And, with the exception of teacher vacancies, an increase in perceived need between the spring semester and the fall semester corresponded with an increase in job dissatisfaction. Principals leading remote schools expressed more disenchantment with the job.
While budget constraints increased principals鈥� dissatisfaction, they were not likely to predict a principal鈥檚 intent to leave.
But principals鈥� reported lack of resources鈥攆or more social-emotional learning materials, for example鈥攁nd teacher and substitute shortages did correspond with intention to leave.
鈥淚f you ask principals if they have a lower school budget, they鈥檇 say, 鈥榶es, that鈥檚 frustrating.鈥� But it doesn鈥檛 drive them to the point of like, 鈥業鈥檓 leaving.鈥欌�� Kaufman said. 鈥淏ut teacher and substitute shortages in particular did predict intention to leave.鈥�
There may be other factors at play in those schools where shortages have been acute, she said.
鈥淚t kind of stands to reason that when you have teacher or substitute shortages there might be something else going on in the school that鈥檚 predicting those shortages,鈥� Kaufman said.
Understanding the underlying reasons for principal鈥檚 unhappiness and addressing those causes鈥� including providing mental health supports for principals, rethinking talent pipelines, and revamping how substitutes are hired and supported within schools and districts鈥攃ould go a long way in staving off a potential exodus, Kaufman said.
Continued and unaddressed discontent could push principals toward the exit, Kaufman said
鈥淭hat鈥檚 always been the takeaway for us: That this could still be coming,鈥� Kaufman said. 鈥淚 think what we need to gauge now is what does dissatisfaction look like now to see if it鈥檚 still really high. If it鈥檚 still really high then I agree that this departure of principals is definitely going to happen.鈥�
