When it comes to the No Child Left Behind Act, sometimes geography is destiny.
Take the neighboring states of Florida and Georgia. A public school in Tallahassee, Fla., is far more likely to fall short of a critical performance measure under the federal law than a school due north in Cairo, Ga.
The reasons may well have more to do with the 250-mile state border and the policymakers who live on either side than with the academic ability of students.
The states鈥� most recent results on the federal gauge鈥攌nown as adequate yearly progress鈥攁re essentially the mirror image of one another. In Florida, about 77 percent of schools did not make adequate progress. In Georgia, 78 percent did.
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But comparing the Georgia and Florida figures is like comparing, well, peaches to oranges.
Not only does each state have its own academic standards and tests for measuring such progress, but any number of fairly technical policy decisions can also have a big influence on how a state鈥檚 schools fare under the federal law.
鈥淚 think they鈥檙e both following the law,鈥� said Scott Marion, a senior associate at the Center for Assessment in Dover, N.H. 鈥淚 just think the law allows for this kind of discrepancy. . There are so many permutations.鈥�
鈥淪ome states are鈥攖o use a bad term鈥攁 little more clever in making the law work for them,鈥� said Scott C. Young, a policy specialist at the Denver-based National Conference of State Legislatures.
To be sure, Florida and Georgia have considerable differences. For example, the Sunshine State has almost twice as many English-language learners proportionately鈥�8.2 percent of its student population, compared with 4.3 percent in Georgia.
Still, the two states have a lot in common. Recent statistics show they have about the same rate of impoverished children鈥攋ust shy of 20 percent鈥攁nd minority students, nearly half of total public school enrollment. And national test data suggest that students overall in the two states are pretty similar academically.
Success or Flop?
Perhaps the biggest hurdle in meeting the federal requirement is that schools must show pro gress not just overall, but also for various student subgroups. Those include children from racial- and ethnic-minority backgrounds, those with disabilities and limited English proficiency, and students from low-income families. Missing a state鈥檚 performance target for just one category, either on the mathematics or reading tests, means a school has not made adequate progress.
Furthermore, a school in general must test 95 percent of students from each subgroup to meet the AYP benchmark. Schools that miss any target for two or more consecutive years face increasingly severe consequences.
In addition to test participation, a lot of other nonacademic factors can influence a school鈥檚 fate under the No Child Left Behind law.
Experts say that every additional subgroup a school has to count increases the chances that it will miss the federal mark. In Florida, the threshold to count a subgroup for a school is at least 30 students. In Georgia, it鈥檚 40.
By the same logic, the smaller a school鈥檚 population, the fewer subgroups it would likely be judged by. Florida tends to have larger schools than Georgia.
Another crucial factor is whether a state uses a confidence interval, a statistical technique that accounts for measurement and sampling error. In effect, it gives schools more leeway in gauging the performance of subgroups, and can help a school over the adequate-progress threshold.
Georgia, like an increasing number of states, uses that statistical method; Florida does not.
And while the federal law calls on states to ensure all students are 鈥減roficient鈥� in reading and math by the end of the 2013-14 school year, states have set different targets to reach that goal.
Here, the contrast between Florida and Georgia may be surprising, as Georgia this past year required more of its students to score at or above grade level than Florida did.
The definition of 鈥減roficient鈥� is different in every state, too.
David N. Figlio, an economics professor at the University of Florida in Gainesville, said he couldn鈥檛 speak about Georgia鈥檚 approach, but he noted that Florida鈥檚 expectations for schools are demanding and are likely to help explain the large proportion of schools鈥攁mong the highest nationwide鈥攖hat fell short.
鈥淔lorida has pretty high standards as far as what it means to be proficient, relative to other states,鈥� he said.
But Mr. Marion of the Center for Assessment said he doubted that was a big factor.
鈥淚 can go down a list of states鈥� with strong standards, he said. 鈥淓verybody did better than Florida.鈥�
Florida鈥檚 results, announced this summer, caused a stir, especially because they appeared out of whack with ratings under the state鈥檚 letter-grade system.
Many schools given an A under the Florida system鈥�707 out of 1,262鈥攄id not make adequate progress under the federal measure.
Those findings sparked such headlines as 鈥淪chools Graded a Success by State, a Flop by Feds,鈥� from the St. Petersburg Times.
Mackay Jimeson, a spokesman for Florida鈥檚 education agency, emphasized that nearly all the A schools that fell short as judged by NCLB rules came close to the goals, meeting 90 percent or more of the categories required.
鈥淭hat helps register with parents what鈥檚 going on at their school,鈥� he said.
Students Look 鈥榃orse鈥�
Ruth H. Melton, the director of legislative relations for the Florida School Boards Association, argues that Florida should make better use of the federal law鈥檚 flexibility.
鈥淚鈥檓 not suggesting we want to make our students look better than they are,鈥� she said. 鈥淏ut the outcome is that we tend to make them look worse than they are.鈥�
William J. Montford, the superintendent of the 33,000-student Leon County school system, which covers the Tallahassee area, said he鈥檚 comfortable with Florida鈥檚 approach.
鈥淔lorida could have made adjustments in our criteria which would have resulted in more schools, more districts meeting AYP,鈥� he said. 鈥淏ut ... the leadership of Florida, including a lot of the superintendents, agreed that we do not need to change and weaken or lower our standards in order to do better on No Child Left Behind.鈥�
Both states made gains over the 2002-03 school year. In Florida, the final figure climbed to 23 percent of schools鈥� making adequate progress, compared with 18 percent the year before. In Georgia, the figure rose from 64 percent to 78 percent, results generally more in keeping with other states鈥�.
Kathy B. Cox, Georgia鈥檚 state schools chief, argues that the growth reflects a blend of improved school performance, more careful attention to rules that trip up schools鈥攕uch as not testing enough students鈥攁nd taking advantage of new flexibility offered by the federal government.
鈥淧eople were so focused, teachers and principals and superintendents, like you have never seen before,鈥� she said.
Although Ms. Cox said she was pleased by Georgia鈥檚 results, she recognizes that it will be still harder for her state and others down the road. 鈥淲e all know the bar keeps going up,鈥� she said.
