Former President Donald Trump鈥檚 unexpectedly decisive victory in the presidential race doused political accelerant over his long-articulated plans to dismantle the U.S. Department of Education, slash K-12 spending, and enact a sweeping federal school choice program.
Trump has 鈥渙ne of the largest mandates in presidential history,鈥� said Ryan Walters, Oklahoma鈥檚 elected superintendent of public instruction and a vocal Trump supporter who has been discussed as a potential education secretary. 鈥淗e has definitively laid out a plan for education. It鈥檚 actually even better [than in the first term] because we鈥檙e seeing more specifics. We鈥檙e seeing more support. He has put himself in a position to have the most effective education policy in the nation鈥檚 history, and it鈥檚 exciting to watch.鈥�
Meanwhile, teachers鈥� union leaders and civil rights advocates are steeling themselves for a fight to maintain federal protections for poor children, students of color, and LGBTQ+ students, and keep the federal government from shifting financial resources to private schools just as federal pandemic relief money for public schools is drying up.
鈥淲e will absolutely be mounting an effort and movement across this country to promote, to protect, and to strengthen public education, because we know the majority of Americans believe in it,鈥� said Becky Pringle, the president of the National Education Association, the nation鈥檚 largest union. 鈥淭hey believe it鈥檚 a foundation of this country.鈥�
To be sure, Trump, who is only the second president in American history to be elected to non-consecutive terms, pushed forward a similar K-12 vision the last time he was in the White House, without significant success.
But both his critics and supporters argue that Trump鈥攚ho will have a Republican U.S. Senate as a governing partner and potentially a Republican U.S. House of Representatives鈥攎ay now have the experience and firepower to bring his K-12 vision to reality.
鈥淗e鈥檚 made some promises to the American people about actions that he鈥檚 going to take as president, and he鈥檚 had time to reflect also on the four years that he served,鈥� said Tiffany Justice, the co-founder of Moms for Liberty, the conservative parents鈥� advocacy group. 鈥淚 think you鈥檙e going to see him selecting people across the board who are going to eliminate a lot of the [K-12] bureaucracy鈥� and empower parents. (Justice has also been mentioned as a prospective education secretary for Trump.)
Trump鈥檚 stunning electoral comeback has also emboldened K-12 leaders and parent advocates who see schools as a key battleground in what they describe as a war against 鈥渨okeness"鈥攍oosely defined as efforts to promote diversity, equity, and inclusion; support transgender and nonbinary students; and teach what critics consider a less-patriotic view of American history.
鈥淚 think you鈥檙e going to continue to see [Trump] find ways to ensure that our kids are not going to have critical race theory in their classroom,鈥� Walters said. 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want kids being told they鈥檙e racist or evil or inferior because of the color of their skin. 鈥� [Trump will] make sure that the American people know that when their kids go to school, they鈥檙e receiving an education, not being indoctrinated to hate this country.鈥�
Having Trump throw the full weight of the White House behind cultural warriors who have gone after teachers who disagree with them is a frightening prospect, Pringle said.
The past few years have seen 鈥渢eachers being fired and threatened for teaching the complete history of this country,鈥� Pringle said. 鈥淣ow you have a president who not only supports that, but will work as best as he can to codify that into law, through executive orders, all of those things.鈥�
Could Trump actually pass a federal school choice program in his second term?
Back in 2016, Trump campaigned on creating a $20 billion federal school choice program and chose as his education secretary Betsy DeVos, a battle-tested school choice advocate.
All that promise never resulted in the passage of any major school choice legislation, beyond a provision in a 2017 tax overhaul package allowing families to use 529 college savings accounts for K-12 private school tuition.
But longtime proponents of federal school choice programs have a lot more reason to be optimistic about their chances now, said Max Eden, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-leaning think tank.
鈥淭he difference between now and then is that he took office [in 2017] without a clear school choice plan,鈥� Eden said. By contrast, this time around, a key House committee has already passed legislation to create a federal tax credit scholarship program, Eden said.
If Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives, the legislation is 鈥減robably more likely than not鈥� to pass, Eden said.
鈥淢ost Republicans are prepared to vote for it, and President Trump has promised it, and so I don鈥檛 see a good reason why that wouldn鈥檛 happen,鈥� he said.
Meanwhile, civil rights advocates are readying their case that directing increasingly scarce resources to private schools鈥攅ven in the form of a tax-credit scholarship or direct tax credit for families鈥攚ould undermine public education.
鈥淲e know that vouchers and education savings accounts drain money from already inequitably funded public schools,鈥� said Allison Socol, the vice president of P-12 policy, practice, and research at the Education Trust, a nonprofit research and advocacy organization that works on behalf of low-income students and students of color. 鈥淭hey lack accountability, compromise protections against discrimination and exclusion, have very questionable educational outcomes, and just generally undermine public education.鈥�
Could Trump make headway in dismantling or diminishing the Education Department?
Republicans have run up against a legislative brick wall in trying to shutter the U.S. Department of Education since its inception in 1980.
But Justice believes Trump鈥檚 arguments against a federal education bureaucracy resonate more with the public these days.
That鈥檚 in part because of parents鈥� frustration with school closures that stretched well into the 2020-21 school year, at the behest of teachers鈥� unions, she argued.
鈥淚 think COVID really showed America who was really controlling our country, that it wasn鈥檛 the elected officials, the people that they were electing to do their will, but that there was a system that鈥檚 working against elected officials, working against the American people to serve their own interests,鈥� Justice said.
It would be foolish to not expect Trump to accomplish more on K-12 in his second term than he did in his first鈥攅ven though Republicans in Congress previously resisted his attempt to nix the Education Department and slash federal school spending, Socol said.
鈥淚 think it is dangerous for civil rights advocates to sit back too much, on the hope that he can鈥檛 get things done because he didn鈥檛 get them done last time,鈥� she said.
